Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Airbnb Has Arrived: Raising Mega-Round at a $1 Billion+ Valuation

According to several sources Airbnb is in the process of closing a whopper of a funding round: $100 million or more at a $1 billion-plus valuation. The round is being lead by Andreessen Horowitz, and includes participation from DST, say our sources.

That's a big increase from the company's last funding round of $7.2 million, which included Sequoia Capital, Greylock, SV Angel, Ashton Kutcher and Youniversity Ventures (Kutcher broke the news that he's an investor in AirBnB at TechCrunch Disrupt last week). The company, which launched via Y Combinator, has raised just $7.8 million to date.

No surprise, it was a hotly contested deal. The service has exploded, growing more than 800% last year and booking 1.6 million night stays in other people's homes to date. On any given night in New York there are more people staying in homes via Airbnb than there are rooms in the biggest hotel in Manhattan.

Airbnb has become the sleeper hit of the startup world. It's one of those companies plenty of well-heeled investors passed on in the early days, because they thought no one would want to open his or her home to strangers. Out of twenty angels he pitched in 2008, founder Brian Chesky said half didn't return his emails and most of the others told him it was an awful idea. Even Paul Graham hated it, but he liked Chesky and backed him hoping he'd change the company. TechCrunch's own hotel expert Paul Carr was a cynic too.

Now, the fear of missing another Airbnb is palpable in the Valley, and one of the reasons GetAround became the darling, audience choice and winner of our Disrupt conference this week.

Earlier in the week, I sat down with Airbnb founder Brian Chesky to talk about this reversal in fortune and how the business is going, although at the time we hadn't heard the details of the deal he was busy negotiating. Check it out below.

Hi, I'm back stage with Brian Chesky, the founder of Airbnb. You guys have kind of been a sleeper hit. I mean you certainly didn't have the color fanfare when you launched.

Nope.

Or anything like that. Mike was just back here. He said he thought you were stupid. Paul wrote something nasty about you. There's Ron Konway waving. That they were stupid?

Are you live?

You are live. Alright, so no one really thought you guys were going to be as big as you have.

Absolutely not.

And I can tell you, the last couple of days, you guys have been the sort of example everyone keeps bringing up. One of the companies thats in the finals get around. Chris Saka said, "Oh this the Airbnb I could get. I passed on Airbnb. I thought it was stupid. I can't believe I passed on it". I mean the fact that people passed on you is dictating investment decision.

It's ridiculous.

Because it's seen as such a mistake.

That's ridiculous. When I first told my parents. They thought I was insane about this idea. Paul Graham, when we first met him in January 2009, he admitted he thought the idea was terrible.

Hm-mm.

And Paul Graham only invested in us, when he heard about the Obama O's story. And he figured, well these guys are like really creative, smart entrepreneurs; they'll probably change their idea. That's the only reason he invested in us, is he thought we were going to change ou idea; he hated it. And we met in the Fall of 2008, probably 15 or 20 Angels, and well, probably half of them didn't return my emails and the ones that did, no one wanted to invest in us.

Right.

It was just something that seemed like obviously a bad idea until one day it seemed like obviously a good idea. And I don't know when that tipped, I think it was just enough people doing it.

So what was the insight that you had that other people missed?

The insight we had was that we actually did it. The way this started is that I moved,--Joe, my co-founder, was living in San Francisco, and I was living in Los Angeles. I came up to San Francisco. We had to figure out a way to make rent. This international design conference is coming to San Francisco, all the hotels are sold out.

We were trying to figure out, how are we going to make rent? And Joe had some air beds in his closet. We pulled the air beds, and we decided we're going to create an "airbed and breakfast" one weekend, and it was only meant to make our rent. We ended up hosting three people. We made a bunch of money, and so I think the insight we gained was, we by accident, I guess you could say, did it ourselves, had an amazing experience.

And by then we realized, this is awesome, one day people all over the world are going to do this. I don't think we had the vision that people were going to be renting all the spaces and renting? We originally envisioned, like, kind of air beds, and like kind of budget. I was a little different vision.

Right. Well, it's fascinating because it tips so quickly, and usually when someone has this kind of story it takes a long time. It's also interesting because, you know, especially in the 90s when I first moved into Silicon Valley, founders would say exactly what you said. They have this story of, like, "Oh, you know, I did this, and then I saw these keys, and I realized I needed this special keyring." And it turned out it was all marketing.

Like the eBay Pez dispenser as the famous example. Is that really the real story or is that all marketing--

It's all real.

--that a PR person has come up with later?"
search in Google, "air, bed, and breakfast" because that was our original name. You will see an original blog post from like October 2007 when people kind of, in a half-jokingly way, are covering us in a blog, like, "couple designers doing this little thing" and it was a really slow launch.

It was like in 2008 we did South by Southwest. Then Erick Schonfeld had covered us in August of 2008. And even it was like still two years, or a year-and-a-half after that, that it took us to get to where we are. So it was a pretty long road. The story is pretty public. We've kind of gotten this market by accident.

And I certainly, I moved up to San Francisco to be an entrepreneur but I was an industrial designer in Los Angeles making physical products. So it was kind of serendipitous that we got into this space.

Now according to Mike, who just yelled this from the hallway, Ron Conway told him yesterday that you guys are on a $500 million dollar revenue runway.

I don't know where he heard that or I think he misunderstood. We haven't disclosed revenue but that's not the number for sure.

And it's lower, not higher?

It's not It's not, it's not higher you can confirm that Alright you guys another start I heard from our produce, John Orlean you guys books more rooms on Airbnb than there are hotel rooms in New York. Am I getting that right?

Tonight, in New York City, more people will stay on Airbnb than any hotel in New York City.

Got it.

We're not bigger than all the hotels combined.

An aggregate, but the biggest hotel. We're bigger than the biggest.How big is the biggest hotel?

I think it's got a thousand rooms and it's the Marriott or the Hilton, around Times Square. And so we have five thousand rooms, we have thousands of people stay with us, we've had as many as, I do not know. Maybe at new year's eve we had five or ten thousand people just in New York staying on Airbnb and there is no hotel that can accomplish that.

The really cool thing about Airbnb is there is literally an Airbnb in almost every block. I'm sure if we searched location, within a couple blocks of here there is probably one. So it's anywhere you go in the city there's basically an Airbnb No rests, no murders, no rape, you haven't craiglist moment yet.

You had 1.6 million nights books, and no one has been heard, there is been no reports. any major problems?

It's got to be coming though. It's got to be like hitchhiking in the 1960's where it's safe and rational and then it went horribly wrong.

1.6 million nights booked, I driven cars for, well, a shorter period of that, I've been in three car accidents. So, I'm going to say safe in the car. I have no idea.

Any tips for people on how to use AirBnB? You know Mark Zuckerberg always talks about the early days of facebook, that people were you know, people were adding all this people, and it's like no you just your real world connection. Do you see people who are using it, not the way it's intended or not getting the most out of it.

I think the number one thing is just adding a lot of information to your profile, especially if you have a listing, the thing that makes this work is that people knowing and like what they're getting, or who this person is that's coming to their place. And so if you're kind of like don't ever put your dog, if you're like don't have a complete listing.

That's not super productive or helpful but if you really just fill out all the information. We make it pretty easy now connecting to facebook import a lot of that. That's, I think, the key thing. That and just being super open-minded, and just remembering that when you're hosting people, you're kind of hosting people on behalf of, not just yourself, but your community.

And sometimes you're hosting people on behalf of your country because there are people who are staying with you who have never even been in the country before and you are their first impression.

Right .

The entire culture of the nations.

Southern manners, I grew up in Memphis, Tennessee, I like that.

Southern hospitality needs to have the pineapple representing hospitality in the south, so very much in that spirit.

Well thank you so much, Brian, for being with us.

Thank you so much.

Congratulations on the success

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Monday, May 30, 2011

Top 5 Foursquare Mistakes Committed by Small Businesses

This post originally appeared on the American Express OPEN Forum, where Mashable regularly contributes articles about leveraging social media and technology in small business.

From our coverage on Mashable, you've probably learned a fair share about Foursquare for business. There are more than 9 million people on Foursquare, and there are 250,000 businesses that have claimed venues and use the location-based service as part of their overall marketing program. Foursquare is a free platform for merchants to use to engage and incentivize customers, but only if done right. Here's what not to do as you embark on your Foursquare marketing endeavors.
---------------

1. Creating a Complicated Special
---------------

There's no fun in trying to unlock a special that is nearly impossible to unlock. Try to keep it simple. The purpose of Foursquare's merchant platform is to bridge the gap between customers and merchants, and a high barrier to entry could easily turn users off. There are seven kinds of specials to choose from, depending on whether you're targeting new customers, encouraging people to come back multiple times or wanting to reward the mayor (your most loyal Foursquare customer).

Foursquare enables businesses to activate a special only on certain days or during certain times, or they can reward people for every nth checkin, regardless of what time or day it happens. "Receive a free cupcake on your fifth checkin" or "10% off your bill on Tuesdays" are good examples of simple rewards.

Specials can provide discounts, a few bucks off or a free item. If you're worried about margins, you can offer a special that doesn't affect your bottom line maybe users will get to shop during special hours at your shop. Alternatively, you can post videos of your most active Foursquare users on your Facebook and Twitter pages. Eric Friedman, Foursquare's director of business development, says the best kind of specials are those that make people feel special and provide them with something they couldn't get as a regular consumer.

Also, remember to set an end-date for your campaign if it's a limited-time offer and use the fine print if there are exclusions to your special.
---------------

2. Not Training Staff
---------------

You never want someone to redeem a special and show it to your staff, only to be looked at with googly eyes. Be sure your team is prepared and can recognize a Foursquare special and offer the redemption. Once you create a special, Foursquare provides flyers for you to print one for employees, and one for customers to build awareness for the product and make sure everyone is on the same page.

If you add a new special or change your current one, be sure to alert the team so they can answer any Foursquare-related questions.
---------------

3. Not Using Foursquare's Dashboard
---------------

The Foursquare dashboard is full of useful information. Merchants can see what times people are checking in, in addition to details on the gender and age breakdown of those users. Businesses can use this information to craft a special to lure people to their venues during slow periods.

Only about 25% of Foursquare users send checkins to Twitter or Facebook, so logging in to the dashboard allows you to see who your most frequent and most recent Foursquare checkins are. This is helpful for businesses and gives them an inside look at their customers, while also proving contact information such as their Twitter handles if a user provided it when signing up. The Twitter handle can be used for one-on-one outreach, which will make your customers feel special and appreciated (and hopefully not creeped out).
---------------

4. Giving Away Too Much Product Via Specials
---------------

Just like on Groupon, there is a point at which your margins could be affected in such a way that you could be losing money. If you're a cupcake shop, you might not to be able to afford giving away a free cupcake with each checkin. That's fine, just get more creative and offer a more exclusive special. Perhaps you can do a loyalty special so that people get a reward a free cupcake on every third or fourth visit. That way, they're incentivized to come back, so you're encouraging and rewarding loyalty with delayed gratification.
---------------

5. Not Advertising That You're a Foursquare Merchant
---------------

People might not be inclined to check in if they don't know there's a reward, so be sure to put the window clings (which Foursquare sends you when you create a special) on display. Setting up a special also guarantees that your business is shown in the "specials nearby" tab when people open the Foursquare app in the vicinity of your business.

The bottom line is that there are nearly 10 million people on Foursquare. Some might be more inclined to try your business and keep coming back if they know there's an incentive on Foursquare. Therefore, not publicizing your special can be a huge missed opportunity.

What are some small business Foursquare marketing mistakes you've seen? Let us know in the comments.
---------------

More Foursquare Resources from Mashable:
---------------

- HOW TO: Start Marketing on Foursquare
- HOW TO: Set Up a Foursquare Special
- Why Location-Based Services Will be the Killer App of the 2012 Elections
- Checking In on Foursquare or Facebook Becomes a Game With Virgin America
- How Geolocation Will Revolutionize the On-Site Service Industry

More About: foursquare, lbs, location marketing, location-based apps, location-based marketing, location-based service, Location-based services, small business, trending

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Sunday, May 29, 2011

(Founder Stories) Quora’s Charlie Cheever On Building A Disruptive Knowledge Platform

Been doing a show on Tech Crunch TV with us called Founder Stories. I don't know, hopefully most of you have had a chance to watch it and it's really just kind of come bout the challenges of building a company. So please give a round of applause to Charlie and Chris. You can sit down, I'm not gonna leave here.

Is my mike on?

Yeah.

So thanks, this is a special edition of Founder Stories. If you haven't seen the show it is on Tech Crunch TV and I encourage you to watch it. This is Charlie Cheever from Quora. Thanks for being here.

Thanks for having me. It is great to be here.

So, you were at Amazon and Facebook before?

Yeah.

And you had a, you did a great job with Facebook. So you ran the connect platform and the.

Hm-hm.

So, like what, I guess first of all, how did that help you. How do those experiences help you with Quora and how did you decide to leave? Why did you decide to leave kind of this dream job and start a company?

Yeah, I think one of the biggest thing that's happened over the last 7 or 8 years is we seen a really like humanization of the internet and the web and people who didn't used to use the internet or at least only used it passively and didn't interact and didn't put content on there, have started to do that and Facebook was really like one of the leaders in that.

So you saw people's mothers uploading photos and stuff like that. So one of the goals the we have for Quora is to have all kinds of people sharing all their knowledge on the site and I think having that experience helped a little bit.

Did you have the idea and then say 'I've gotta go start this company' or did you just want to start a company or how?

I had the original idea of doing a Q;A type of thing but what convince me was, actually a really good idea was I did this exercise when I was evaluating it which was to, as I went through my day, just catch myself every time that I wanted to know something or was curious about something and sort of make a mental note of that, and then imagine a world where I knew everything that I wanted to know, as long as someone else in the world knew it.

So, you would come up with things you wanted to know and then you wouldn't find that content on the internet and then you said okay maybe it would be great if there was a repository with that content.

Right, an example is like I think I was in a cab, coming up from the airport into New York, and the driver was kind of driving like a maniac and this thought went through my head, you know; are cab drivers safer or less safe than regular drivers? I went to go put that on Quora and someone had actually already put this up like 2 months ago.

The answer is cab drivers are actually safer than driving yourself, if you're curious. But there's actually so many things that just come up in your daily life and I think we've trained ourselves to dismiss them as like there's no way I can find that out quickly so I won't even worry about it. But when you sort of can have access to it, it's really changing.

So, one of the biggest challenges, you have a user generated content site. One of the biggest challenges is kind of getting over the, what they call a chicken and egg problem, where you have to get both contributors and then people asking questions, answering questions, and then people, I guess, just sort of observing and loading things up.

How did you approach that problem?

Yeah, I think you definitely want to take responsibility for making sure that the content on your site is good because there's a real momentum and inertia with sites where you build the scaffolding and then users produce all the content. So, I think if you set it off in the right direction then that will continue and perpetuate, but if it goes in a bad direction, then it's really hard to pull it back.

And so we spent a lot of time in addition to just trying to build the features of the site. I mentioned doing this exercise and catching myself every time I wanted to know something. Once we had a sort of a prototype of this site, I would put all those questions on the site and everyone else on theteam would do that as well.

And then we'd actually go and answer them all, if you know, when we had a few alpha users and beta users, whenever they would put questions up on the site, we would go through and answer as many of the questions as we could by spending you know, 20 minutes researching it.

One thing I noticed in talking to founders of user generated content sites is that there is this mythology that you can kinda just put up a website and people sort of magically come there, and they start developing their own norms and things like this when in fact I think a lot of these sites, the founders are pretty strict about sort of the initial content and are very involved in sort of setting the initial norms and I think are more heavy handed than maybe people from the outside thinks.

Do you?

Yeah, I think the right way to think about that is to think about it sort of from working backwards. One example of something that upset people at first on our site, but now a lot who come around to like is. We sort of have a rule that all the questions have to be formatted with the correct spelling and grammar and formatting, and in the short-term, that can annoy some people, who are like, "Well, I like writing all ut now, since that's happened with all these different questions, now it's like, everyone can sort of see that it's this nicely formatted, easy to read, sort of database of knowledge, so I think it's really important to imagine the long term and focus on that and then work backwards from that.

How do you avoid, like Yahoo answers I think started off having pretty high quality content and now seems to sort of have devolved into a kind of a teen chat room, or I don't know, his problem often that these Q;A sites have had in the past as they grow, the quality goes down. How do you think about that?

Yeah, I think that's one of those problems that it is not any one big thing that is the solution, but a lot of little things. Some of them, the more important ones for us are, number one just the sort of momentum and culture and inertia of having good content. Where people see a lot of examples of good stuff that we show them on their homepages and at the top of question pages and whatnot.

And then those are the examples that they model after. Another important point is there's moderation on this site. Like f you break the rules then the users who are blessed as moderators will go in and remove the content or ban users that are not playing by the rules.

You have to deputize users to be moderators. That is the way you scale that because obviously you can't do that yourself.

Yeah .

So like I know I use Quora a lot for start up type stuff like business technology question What are the other, I think you just recently, like, announced that you were allowing legal and medical, stuff like, what are the other areas that you see flourishing?

One area that's been cool to see is, is movies. There's a lot of good content, especially around like, Inception and Black Swan and a few other movies. There's this user named Mark Hughes, was a screen writer got really popular writing Quora and he just got picked up by Forbes as a regular blogger for them.

And his first post was a, sort of an edited version of a question answered on Quora about could you really become Batman. So that was pretty cool, you' ll see and then Like lawyers, for example a lot of them probably, you know, there 's a difference in the cultural mindset in terms of how they use the internet. I think a lot of law firms actually don't allow their, their employees to post. And like the same with doctors, like yeah, that's definitely true. My dad's a lawyer at a big firm, and he's not allowed to post about law on the site, even though he'd like to.

But a lot of independent lawyers and sort of forward-thinking lawyers are at forward-thinking firms use it. I know one lawyer that I ran into at a user meet-up recently told us that in the first quarter of this year, about half of his new business like, came in through Quora because he posted a lot the topics of his expertise and sort of people came to this site and were looking for a lawyer in that area.

How do you measure success ? I guess you mentioned that quality is really important. Like, how do you, besides the obvious metrics, users, number of users, number of questions. Like, how do you measure success and whether things are working?

It's hard to use metrics as much as we'd like because we want to be data-driven and I think that's the right way to deal with a large system in the long term.

It 's really hard when you want to factor in quality because just looking at the pure number of questions or the pure number of answers, it can easily be skewed. You could be getting a lot of junk that's actually spam or not helping make the system better. But one metric that we kind of keep in mind is, a friend of mine I ran into the other day and he said "Oh, you know I don't post a ton on Quora but I've gotten in the habit of whenever I need to know something I'll check there first before I search the rest of the internet and about 30 to 40 percent of the time, I find something that's great on Quora, and the rest of the time, I have to go do another search or something like that." So, I think one of our goals is basically to drive up that thirty, forty percent towards close to 100%, and then if stuff isn't there, give you this confidence that if you put up a question you'll, something good will come of it and you will get good answer pretty quickly.

But most Q;A sites are highly dependent on SCO and so being dependent on, I think as Bill Verily put it, being dependent on a platform one that is sort of moving up the stack, or something, and adding more. So you see sort of the tension between Google and Yelp for example, with Places and Google had their own, kind of Wikipedia-type thing, Knol.

Do you worry about being so dependent on SEO?

Not really. I think we do get a lot of traffic from search engines because there's lot of good content that matches what people are searching for. But we also, crawl also kind of works like a, a little bit similar to a blogging platform, where people sort of promote their own stuff that they write.

A lot of our traffic comes in through Twitter, because people will write an answer and then tweet it out and their followers will read it. We also have a bunch of people who come into the site directly and just read on their homepage about stuff up there. That's also generally a really important part of the health of the system, getting a lot of attention to the content on the site, even when people don't feel the need to search for it, just so that it gives the writers who write the really good content enough reason to write.

So you had, you guys got like, you had a ton of press, I think maybe especially like, Yeah, I think some of the hype has died down. But, just the other day we had a record high for traffic on the site and we've, we keep growing every day, and so we're really happy with our progress there, and then we're also just excited about, like, my own confidence and like if I put up a question and sort of any broad areas gone up a lot that'll get a good answer whereas I know, like, early on, when we started, there was a lot of content around Silicon Valley and technology and start-up software.

What 's your long term vision? I sort of feel like it's a tension at Quora between
people kind of going on, and having kind of a more like a business discussion or something versus I think what you want to do is create like a long term repository of evergreen content. Like how do you think about that tension, and maybe, what's your sort of, in your fantasy world, like, you know, what does Quora look like?

Yeah, I think there is a little bit of a tension between what you are talking about. But I think, maybe one way to think about what we are focused on the long term is we really want to be the best place for people to want to write the great content and keep it evergreen. So part of what we do for that is we build an audience where like on any question, a bunch of people can follow the question and then as someone who's choosing to maybe start a blog and write on that and just put something out into the ether and hope that somebody comes and looks at it.

You have a waiting audience that when you write it, it will get sent to them. You'll see it right away and give you good feedback and there's sort of a community right on that very specific topic and I think over the long term if you have people invested in writing good stuff, then that will, like push the bar up and we'll end up with really good database of knowledge.

There was a thread on Quora yesterday of what questions people want me to ask you and a bunch that were about monetization. I think I know the answer, right? It's like, you don't know yet, and it's probably advertising?

Your hunch is right.

So, I mean, I think, I don't know personally I think like it's very hard to find very large scale consumer internet businesses that haven't figured a business model. It's probably just a question as to whether Yeah If you have things around like purchasing intent or what camera should I buy? You know, those things tend to monetize.

Yeah, for now we are just focused on building a really good product and building a set of questions and answers that keep getting better and helping people find what they are looking for. But we do want build a really sustainable company that can reinvest in building better and better technology to organize all this information and better tools for people to use it.

So, part of the, part of the goal of The founders of the shows to kind of provide the educational and help kind of fledgling entrepreneurs, and maybe pass on some of the things you've learned. So for example, what are some of the things that surprised you the most, lets say doing your own company versus working at Facebook and Amazon?

I think, if I had to give any sort of kind of advice I'd say that keeping a level head is absolutely necessary. Like, I mentioned how we, just like a couple days ago, had our highest traffic day ever. A couple of days before that, Amazon web services, basically all of our servers went down, and the site was down for about 24 hours.

I think we're doing really well, but in the same span of two weeks, you can go from, you know, the worst disaster to a really high high and back up and down again.

How do you, like what do you do you have techniques for keeping level, or do you just try to keep it in the long term perspective?

Yeah, we have a company value I've always Thinking about the long term and staying focused on that. And I think all the early people that we've worked with all have this kind of focus and we don't get too high when things are up and too down when things are low.

What do you look for when you hire? What are the top things you look for in people?

I think, the first thing that we look for is maybe, just upside. Like, we think we have a lot of ability to teach people and help them get better. And if people are willing, or seem like they have a lot of raw talent, either in just being really, really smart or having a really good sense of product or design or something like that.

And that's paired with a combination of willingness to just put in a lot of effort and put in sort of extra hours, not necessarily in the office, but just spending your free cycles thinking about how can I make this better? How can I, like, make this a perfect user experience or make this faster.

or make it work better. At least what I've seen over time is those ki
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(Founder Stories) Gilt’s Kevin Ryan—It Is All In The Presentation (TCTV)

Chris Dixon wraps his Founder Stories interview with Gilt Groupe's CEO and Founder, Kevin Ryan by discussing the early sales strategy of Gilt - a strategy that was designed to build customer and brand loyalty, but not the bottom line, at least initially.

Revisiting the launch period around four years ago, Ryan says, "we were going to make $4,000 for us on a sale and I spent $7,000 on the photo shoot, and you would say that is not a good business model, but what happened was the brands loved it, the customers loved it and so now we sell $100,000, $200,000, $300,000 . on a sale."

The benefit was clear. Businesses liked selling excess items online in a classy environment and customers liked buying them at discount.

While the idea was gold, Ryan was quick to point out it was probably the least important part of the equation. He goes on to say, the key to success is "execution, and execution is hiring great people, managing them well and moving quickly."

If you missed any part of Dixon's interview with Ryan make sure to watch the entire clip below, or Part 1 and Part II separately.

Prior episodes of Founder Stories including Foursquare, GroupMe, and Tumblr are here.

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News: Google Launches Wallet NFC Payment System for Android - The Mac Observer

Telegraph.co.uk

News: Google Launches Wallet NFC Payment System for Android
The Mac Observer
Google announced Thursday Google Wallet, a near field communications (NFC) payment system that will turn an Android device into a mobile payment system. Wallet is being introduced in San Francisco and New York City as test markets, and it was developed ...
Google: Who Needs a Wallet?The Ledger
Google to Unveil Mobile Payments PlatformWall Street Journal
Google Said to Plan Mobile-Payment Service Unveiling in New YorkBloomberg
PC Magazine -InformationWeek -Los Angeles Times
all 2,478 news articles

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Munch On Me Is A Groupon For Food, Done Right

Munch On Me is a daily deals site for food. But wait, before you click away to a slideshow about hot coders, Munch On Me (Y Combinator Summer class of 2011) has got some features that might just reroute you from relying on the big G for your munchies back to its sweet sweet embrace.

First of all, Munch On Me focuses on giving discounts on specific dishes, instead of on anything in the entire restaurant. Any business who's been a victim of the Groupon effect knows why this is important, namely because restaurants can prepare for the demand in advance, overloading on the inventory they expect will sell out.

The Munch On Me discount focuses only on one item, and restaurants can upsell after the initial sale ("Would you like fries with that free milkshake?) and can keep offering up deals. Customers can redeem their deals immediately, a food industry-specific convenience that Groupon seems to have caught onto with its Groupon Now concept.

Because it takes less of a cut than Groupon, Munch On Me can get merchants to give out larger discounts as well as items for free in hopes of bringing more people into the store.

Says co-founder Jason Wang, "We were surprised in the beginning too, but merchants are willing to give out freebies' since we focus on dishes and not the entire menu. It drives a significant amount of traffic to the establishment. For example, when we ran King Pin Donuts in Berkeley, CA for a week, 1,573 people claimed a free donut when it was limit 1 per person."

But the startup also makes money, "We don't always offer 100% off. We sell individual dishes as well. For example, when you visit the Featured Dishes page in Berkeley right now (http://munchonme.com/index.php?l=berkeleyeastbay), [and] these cost money for users."

Munch On Me also has another, more unique competitive advantage to Groupon. Banking on the fact that restaurants can't take stellar pictures of their own food (food pics are a big deal), it sends out a professional photographer to get the job done.

You can currently peruse 2-4 Munch On Me deals a week in San Francisco and in Berkeley.

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Facebook Still Has No iPad App But They’re Building A Desktop Software Team?!

Facebook has no iPad app. It's ridiculous. Their iPhone app is the most downloaded app in the history of apps. And third-party iPad apps (many of which aim to trick users) constantly dominate the top 10 lists for both free and paid apps. And yet, Facebook doesn't seem to care at all about the device. Because they're all about HTML5, right?

Well, someone might want to tell the Seattle office that.

On the jobs page for the relatively new Seattle Facebook office, one of the openings is for "Software Engineer, Desktop Software". Desktop software. Desktop. Before the damn iPad. Hey Facebook, 1986 called, they want their strategic vision back.

Seriously though, this isn't just one engineer they're looking for to work on fun products (like the nifty, but experimental Mac Desktop Notifications app), this is an entire team they're building. Again, to work on desktop apps. The job description:

The desktop software team is a new team at Facebook based out of Seattle, WA. We will be working on new products that we expect to deliver to millions of users' computers to help make their entire computing experience more social. Facebook is seeking experienced Software Engineers in Seattle to join this team.

The job asks for expertise in creating desktop applications for Mac and/or Windows (Linux fans can now revolt as well).

Other responsibilities include:
Work closely with our product and design teams to define feature specifications
Work closely with our Platform team to build server-side APIs and interfaces in support of these applications
Conduct design and code reviews

Is Facebook actually building a full-fledged desktop app? If so, that's awesome. But again, it doesn't seem to make a lot of sense given their stated (over and over again) commitment to HTML5 and that being the key driver for why they don't have an iPad app.

Of course, I also don't believe that they're not actually building an iPad app. I think they just thought they could get away with not building one (remember "the iPad isn't mobile" — but the desktop is?) and only more recently realized they should probably be on the fastest growing new computing platform in history.

And then there's the Facebook Phone project. Which totally doesn't exist. Double pinkie swear (with fingers crossed behind the back).

Or might this be about the Facebook Browser that I've been thinking about for a while? That might actually make a lot of sense.

Interesting times for the social network. I just better see that damn iPad app before I see a desktop client.

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Is There A Peak Age for Entrepreneurship?

Editor's note: Adeo Ressi, is the founder of The Founder Institute and TheFunded.com In this guest post he argues against ageism when it comes to to entrepreneurs. Ressi is 39.

The recent articles proclaiming that 25 is the peak age for entrepreneurship deserve a considered and factual response. The demographic and racial profiling that has plagued venture capital and tech entrepreneurship has a new friend—ageism. This has to stop.

Anecdotal Evidence:

It does not take but one minute to look around the world and prove any thesis of a peak tech founder age incorrect. There are countless entrepreneurs over the age of 30, including Reid Hoffman (age 35 in 2002), Evan Williams of Twitter (age 35 in 2007), Mark Pincus of Zynga (age 41 in 2007), Arianna Huffington of the Huffington Post (age 54 in 2005), among many others.

A commonly held belief is that younger founders appear to inspire waves of innovation, like in the mid-1990s and even today with Facebook, while older entrepreneurs launch sustainable businesses. The reality is more complicated. There are older inventors and entrepreneurs, like Dean Kamen (age 60) or Elon Musk of SpaceX (age 39), who continue to create revolutionary products; and there are, of course, thousands of young entrepreneurs pursuing "me too" businesses.

Anecdotal data is at best inconclusive. I launched my first internet business at the age of 22 in 1994, and through naive optimism and blind luck, it eventually became worth over $600 million. My direct impact on the value creation was relatively low. In fact, many of the revolutionary internet businesses started in the mid-1990s were founded by 20-somethings with blind optimism. However, the majority of the sustainable businesses created in the 90s were founded or run by older entrepreneurs.

In some cases, older entrepreneurs paired up with the younger founders, like Google (Larry Page and Sergey Brin were both age 25 in 1998, and Eric Schmidt was age 46 in 2001). In other cases, more successful clones were launched by older entrepreneurs, like Amazon (Jeff Bezos was age 30 in 1994). And, many young founders were pushed out or sidelined for more seasoned leaders, like with PayPal (Peter Thiel took over from younger founders when he was age 31 in 1998).

Anecdotal evidence, personal stories, and biased sample sets are not the best way to draw meaningful conclusions, so let's look at some facts.

Factual Data:

In order to identify the traits of successful entrepreneurs, the Founder Institute has conducted a battery of proprietary personality and aptitude tests on over 3,000 applicants worldwide, and then carefully tracked the progress of our nearly 1,000 enrolled founders and 350 graduates. Research scientists employed by the Institute have examined the results of the successful founders and the less successful cases, looking at high-level traits and even examining test results on a question by question basis.

The research shows that an older age is actually a better predictor of entrepreneurial success, and that three other traits also correlate strongly to success: strong fluid intelligence, high openness, and moderate agreeableness. Let's dive in deeper on the four key traits of entrepreneurial success:
Older age has shown in the data to correlate with more successful entrepreneurs up to the age of 40, after which it has limited or no impact. Our take: Older individuals have generally completed more complex projects—from buying a house to raising a family. In addition, older people have developed greater vocational skills than their younger counterparts in many, but not all, cases. We theorize that the combination of successful project completion skills with real world experience helps older entrepreneurs identify and address more realistic business opportunities.
Fluid intelligence is a largely genetic trait that measures one's ability to quickly learn a rule set and apply the learned logic to solve problems. It can also be referred to as abstract thinking, and fluid intelligence declines with age. Our take: Entrepreneurs are constantly faced with new problems that need to be understood and solved within minutes—from sudden resignations to service outages. It makes sense that they require fluid intelligence to succeed.
Openness is a Big Five personality trait that measures one's ability to see and appreciate the world around them. It is often synonymous with curiosity, adventure, or cultural awareness. Our take: Entrepreneurs, particularly in fast-growth startups, need to challenge accepted norms, and be open to changes and new information that affect the success of their enterprise.
Agreeableness is another Big Five personality trait that measures cooperation versus antagonism. It can be synonymous with compassion, or, conversely, with suspicion. Our take: A moderate level of agreeableness correlates with the ability to stick to a chosen path despite conflicting information and naysayers, allowing an entrepreneur to persevere in the face of obstacles.

Our Methodology:

The 3,000+ tested applicants come from 17 cities across four continents worldwide, and range in age from 17 to over 60. Applicants self-select as being interested in entrepreneurship by applying to the Institute in the first place. Two times per year, the Institute expands the breadth of the test with different batteries, lasting as long as three hours, providing a greater set of data to identify new traits of success. In addition, the Institute enrolls a number of semesters per year without using the test results so that we have a control group to measure the effectiveness of the test results in admissions.

Figure 1: Age of Founder Institute Applicants at Time of Applying

Defining Success:

Since the Institute is only 25 months old and the oldest graduates are only 18 months out of the program, there are no M&A deals or public offerings among the graduates, yet. So, the Institute uses a careful performance evaluation of founders and their companies to identify their relative "success." Each founder is rated weekly during the program by a subset of their closest peers in their program, rated twice throughout the program by seasoned CEO Mentors, and tracked quarterly after graduation through self-reporting on key metrics, such as revenue growth and market traction, with validation of this progress by the Founder Institute itself. All of this data is collected, processed and analyzed twice per year to check, validate and change our assumptions.

Only 39 percent of applicants are under 30, and of those who graduate, 36 percent are under 30.  The average age of all graduated founders is 34.4 years old, and the performance results of graduates speak for themselves:

Figure 2: Performance of Founder Institute Graduated Companies

Figure 3: Age of Founder Institute Graduates at Time of Graduation

The Testing Results:

The admissions test itself predicts success well by factoring in age and the other traits. 53% of the time the test will predict the assessment of a founder's success by peers and mentors within 5%. The predictions of the test are off by 20% or more in only 14% of the cases.

Figure 4: Prediction of the Test Results Measured Against Peer Reviews

Conclusion:

Age is only one factor among many to predict the success of entrepreneurs, and anybody at any age can break any molds put forward by "experts." However, it's clear that the stories of a few "college-dropout turned millionaire" (or billionaire) startup founders have clouded both the mass media and the tech industry from reality. We have romanticized the idea of a young founder because, well, it's a great story, but these stories are not the norm. In the end, classic biases of gender, race, and age need to be discarded for a real science of success.

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What Makes A Startup Successful? Blackbox Report Aims To Map The Startup Genome

Generally speaking, the odds are stacked heavily against the average startup. The rate of failure among entrepreneurs and startups is startlingly high it comes with the territory. Otherwise, entrepreneurs wouldn't be pirates.

But, what if there were a way to reduce that failure rate by cracking the formula of startup success? No easy feat to map the double helix of startups, but entrepreneurs are risk-takers by nature, so four of these risk-loving international entrepreneurs came together to found the Startup Genome Report, a report that is part of a larger project that dives into the very anatomy of what makes Silicon Valley startups successful or not.

The entrepreneurs who founded the Startup Genome report (Bjoern Herrmann, Max Marmer, Fadi Bishara, Aleksandra Markova), have also created a business accelerator called Blackbox, which will be leveraging the data they have collected (and will collect) from their ambitious R&D enterprise. The Startup Genome Report, as it is today, is a 44 page analysis on data collected from 650+ web startups.

The entrepreneurs recruited both UC Berkeley and Stanford faculty members, like Steve Blank, the Sandbox Network team, the Startup Bootcamp team, and the Pollenizer team, to help coauthor and contribute to the study. The goal of the report is to lay the foundation for a new framework for assessing startups more effectively by measuring the thresholds and milestones of development that Internet startups move through.

Blackbox, which was co-founded by techVenture and other organizations that have a track record of working with 100+ startups, including 15 exits (such as Bebo, Tapulous & Lala), hopes to use the Startup Genome Report as a cipher to help crack the innovation code, and give fledgling entrepreneurs and startups from around the world access to the characteristics and qualities that make Silicon Valley companies successful.

Here are 14 of the most interesting trends identified by the Startup Genome Report, some of which are intuitive and some of which may come as a surprise. Among them? Investors may be less help than they think. Take a look:
Founders that learn are more successful: Startups that have helpful mentors, track metrics effectively, and learn from startup thought leaders raise 7x more money and have 3.5x better user growth.
Startups that pivot once or twice times raise 2.5x more money, have 3.6x better user growth, and are 52% less likely to scale prematurely than startups that pivot more than 2 times or not at all.
Many investors invest 2-3x more capital than necessary in startups that haven't reached problem solution fit yet. They also over-invest in solo founders and founding teams without technical cofounders despite indicators that show that these teams have a much lower probability of success.
Investors who provide hands-on help have little or no effect on the company's operational performance. But the right mentors significantly influence a company's performance and ability to raise money. (However, this does not mean that investors don't have a significant effect on valuations and M&A)
Solo founders take 3.6x longer to reach scale stage compared to a founding team of 2 and they are 2.3x less likely to pivot.
Business-heavy founding teams are 6.2x more likely to successfully scale with sales driven startups than with product centric startups.
Technical-heavy founding teams are 3.3x more likely to successfully scale with product-centric startups with no network effects than with product-centric startups that have network effects.
Balanced teams with one technical founder and one business founder raise 30% more money, have 2.9x more user growth and are 19% less likely to scale prematurely than technical or business-heavy founding teams.
Most successful founders are driven by impact rather than experience or money.
Founders overestimate the value of IP before product market fit by 255%.
Startups need 2-3 times longer to validate their market than most founders expect. This underestimation creates the pressure to scale prematurely.
Startups that haven't raised money over-estimate their market size by 100x and often misinterpret their market as new.
Premature scaling is the most common reason for startups to perform worse. They tend to lose the battle early on by getting ahead of themselves.
B2C vs. B2B is not a meaningful segmentation of Internet startups anymore because the Internet has changed the rules of business. We found 4 different major groups of startups that all have very different behavior regarding customer acquisition, time, product, market and team.

If you're interested in learning more, detailed analysis of each of these points can be found in the full Startup Genome Report.

The team is also introducing a new survey that aims to help entrepreneurs understand the stage their startup is in and gives them personalized tips and advice for what to focus on based on data from the research project. The more data the project collects, the more accurate its conclusions become, and the more entrepreneurs and their startups can benefit from that knowledge, so check it out here.

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Startup Turns Anyone’s Car Into Part Of A Zipcar-Like Fleet

The Spark of Genius Series highlights a unique feature of startups and is made possible by Microsoft BizSpark. If you would like to have your startup considered for inclusion, please see the details here.

Name: Getaround

Quick Pitch: Getaround lets you rent a car from someone nearby.

Genius Idea: Offering hourly car rentals without purchasing a single vehicle itself.
---------------

Companies like Zipcar and Hertz's Connect have proven there is a market for alternatives to car ownership, but they fall short of meeting everyone's price point and needs. In many markets, Zipcar charges an $82-per-day rate in addition to an annual fee, and the service isn't offered outside of cities.

Getaround fixes both of these problems by allowing its users to rent their neighbors' cars. It's like an Airbnb for vehicles. Car owners choose their own hourly rental rates and schedules all they need to do to make their cars Getaround ready is install a free "carkit," which functions as both GPS tracker and key mechanism.

Renters can sign up free of charge. After they're approved by the owner of the car they'd like to rent, they pick up it up using an iPhone app that unlocks it. Insurance (provided by Berkshire Hathaway) and 24-hour roadside assistance come with the rental fees, which most owners set at between $3 and $15 per hour.

Avery Lewis, Getaround head of product, says some renters have used the service as a way to safely lend their cars to roommates who don't have insurance. At the other end of the spectrum, one woman went on vacation with her car available for rent during her abscence and then was able to extend her vacation using the proceeds.

If Getaround catches on, its number of available rentals has the potential to make Zipcar's 8,500 cars look diminunitive. And it could reach areas that are too rural to be viable for a company like Zipcar all while taking a 40% cut of rental fees on vehicles that it doesn't own.

As with most good ideas, community car sharing isn't something just one company is pursuing. A startup called RelayRides, which counts Google Ventures and August Capital among its investors, is pursing a similar idea. The company already has cars available in San Francisco and Boston.

Getaround has functioning services in San Francisco and San Diego, and it officially launched its national expansion at TechCrunch Disrupt on Tuesday. It also won the competition's $50,000 grand prize.

The startup will add that cash to $125 million in funding as it courts a critical mass of car owners beyond the Bay Area.
---------------

Series Supported by Microsoft BizSpark
---------------

The Spark of Genius Series highlights a unique feature of startups and is made possible by Microsoft BizSpark, a startup program that gives you three-year access to the latest Microsoft development tools, as well as connecting you to a nationwide network of investors and incubators. There are no upfront costs, so if your business is privately owned, less than three years old, and generates less than U.S.$1 million in annual revenue, you can sign up today.

More About: car sharing, Getaround, relayrides, zipcar

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Thursday, May 26, 2011

Online Shopping Startup ProjectSlice Raises $9.4 Million From Eric Schmidt, Michael Birch And Others

Stealthy startup ProjectSlice is launching to the public today and announcing a $9.4 million Series A funding round led by DCM and Lightspeed Venture Partners with Michael Birch, FLOODGATE, Eric Schmidt's Innovation Endeavors and Rick Thompson participating.

ProjectSlice aims to help you organize your online shopping by analyzing your inbox. It's sort of like what TripIt does for your itineraries, except ProjectSlice tracks receipts, notices and purchases. The startup is launching a free app called "All My Purchases" for Yahoo Mail that will help keep your shopping information organized and accessible.

Once you sign up, the app automatically pulls information from the electronic receipts in your email and organizes it in one place. The startup says that receipts and purchases often gets lost in your inbox and the app consolidates your shopping history in one place so you don't have to log into multiple websites, dig through receipts or manually file emails

And ProjectSlice offers a whole slew of services that make tracking your purchases easy. The app will automatically track in-progress shipments and chart shipping from multiple retailers on a single map. ProjectSlice will also provide quick access to return and customer service information that isn't always so easy to find. And the app will show you exactly what you bought down to the individual item from the most popular merchants, not just where you bought it.

As someone who shops a lot online, Project Slice solves a major pain point of keeping track of all purchases, from Amazon to PeaPod, even for daily deal sites. I would definitely use this app; and it could bring the sort of disruption to online shopping that TripIt brought to travel planning. Now all Project Slice has to do is launch a service for Gmail.

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WePay Adds Event Ticketing To Hassle-Free Group Payments Platform

WePay, a Y Combinator backed startup that aims to take the hassle out of group paying, is unveiling a new ticketing feature that allows users to sell tickets online for events. As we've written in our previous coverage of WePay, the service is a dead simple way to collect, manage and spend money for groups.

On WePay, you can create a unique, FDIC insured account for each group. While the account is still associated with your name, but you can keep each group account totally separate from your personal transactions. Group money can essentially be kept separate from any individual accounts you may have. You can also designate specific individuals to have control over accounts.

The company offers two options—WePay Tickets which allows organizers to sell tickets and collect basic information from ticket purchasers and WePay Tickets Pro which allows organizers to create custom forms to gather detailed information about event attendees.

The startup says that its offering was already being used to sell tickets for events and adding a dedicated ticketing option made sense for users. WePay contends that its payments platform is superior to others because there is no merchant or PayPal accounts required; the setup is simple, organizers have instant access to the money they collect and users can create custom registration forms.

WePay also offers organizers a way to track event expenses and users can embed a ticket sales widget on websites. Additionally, WePay Tickets charges a 3.5% fee without any additional monthly or credit card processing fees. WePay Tickets Pro charges a fee of 6% + $.99 per transaction. For basis of comparison, Eventbrite charges 2.5% plus $0.99 per ticket, plus credit card processing fees.

Despite competition from PayPal and now Eventbrite, WePay is currently seeing high engagement rates and tens of thousands of people currently use WePay every month to collect money online. And the company is processing "several million dollars" in payment volume per month.

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Reply.com Acquires Marketing Network For Small Businesses MerchantCircle For $60 Million

Ad network Reply has acquired online marketing network for small business owners MerchantCircle for $60 million in cash and stock. The transaction is expected to be completed in Q3 2011.

Merchant Circle provides a business directory for merchants in smaller towns and currently lists over a million small businesses. MerchantCircle has long targeted merchants in small locales versus catering towards the consumers, as sites like Yelp and CitySearch do. MerchantCircle has local business members in 95% of the 24,600 U.S. cities and towns with populations over 200. The company also acquired Bloglines from IAC late last year.

Reply.com is a cost-per-click ad network which targets ads for local businesses. Its strategy is to gather more information from consumers who click on their ads by inserting a "middle page" between that pops to ask them where they live or what brands they like to improve targeting before showing them an ad. The company just filed for an IPO, aiming to raise $60 million.

Clearly, MerchantCircle brings Reply an inventory of small businesses. Reply says the combined company projects revenues of over $100 million in 2012.

Merchant circle has raised $14 million in funding from SV Angel, IAC, Rustic Canyon, Steamboat Ventures, Scale Venture Partners and others.

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The Latest Chinese Methods Of Hiding Debt And Priming Growth

Quite a lot of data came in last week as I was recovering from the jet lag generated by last week's trip to the US, and for good measure, the PBoC then raised minimum reserve requirements Thursday evening. I discuss the numbers extensively in my newsletter, and of course there has been a lot of discussion in the press, but for this blog entry I want to discuss once again (and perhaps for the last time) the subject of copper imports. I know I have written many times about goings-on in the copper markets in China, and I don't want overdo it, but so many people I met with during my trip to the US continued to be interested in the story that I thought I would cite what one of my smartest students reported to me recently.

Michael Liang, who heads my trading seminar, wrote me about a recent conversation he had with a commodity trader he had invited to speak later this week at the seminar. According to him, this conversation confirmed the story we have put together over the past five months.

He [the trader] said that on March, clothes makers, food manufacturers, and others who have never bought copper before were massively buying copper from the tariff-protected warehouses, in Guangdong for example. The warehouses are in China, but tariffs on the goods there haven't been paid yet, and any purchase from one of these warehouses is regarded as an import.

These enterprises purchased copper just to get L/C financing, in which banks finance the purchase of the imports for 90 days. This costs the buyer 30 bps. If they defer repayment to 180 days, they pay an additional 40 bps. The import is settled in dollars, which means that the buyer has a dollar liability due in 180 days, but can sell copper today for RMB. The interest cost for the L/C is around 1.4% annualized, so that even when LME copper trades at a premium to Shanghai copper, the all-in borrowing cost is greatly mitigated by the low cost of L/C and any RMB appreciation.

The reason that banks love to do this business  and markets have become so competitive and rates so low  is that 1)the transaction is off the balance sheet, and 2)bank clerks get paid a direct commission on the L/C. The more they do, the more they earn personally.

This process stopped a month ago because the PBoC intervened to prevent more copper-based financing. This was the start of the bearish sentiment in copper  the massive demand in China is gone. As to the role of my friend and his trading house, they do the physical and paper arbitrage between Shanghai, LME and the tariff-protected warehouses. Their role is to import copper from LME to the tariff-protected warehouses and sell them at a premium.

I think that in his account my student has not included all the financing costs implicit in the L/C  I am pretty sure the L/C was issued at a discount. At any rate I hope to talk to the trader later this week and if I hear anything different or interesting, I will follow up. I suspect, however, that this particular form of leverage may have come to an end now that the PBoC has discovered it and Intervened.

Dodgy loans

This doesn't mean however that we can relax. It probably just means that the financial sector will continue to find ways to innovate around attempts to rein in credit growth. It also means, I would guess, that total imports in the past few months were artificially high, and we should expect lower than normal copper imports over the rest of the year. Of course this will put upward pressure on the trade surplus.

While we are on the subject of innovative financing, I thought I would relay three interesting things I saw this week. First off was a report by Market Watch on struggles of real estate developers:

The debt carried by China's real-estate developers jumped 41% in the March-ended year from the same period 12 months earlier, according to a report by Chinese state media. Debt carried by the nation's developers was 1.05 trillion yuan ($162 billion), the Xinhua News Agency reported on Monday, citing figures compiled by the Shanghai-based data provider, Wind Information.

The figures were based on the 113 mainland-listed developers and their first-quarter filings. The value of unsold houses was up 40.2% to CNY903.5 billion, the Xinhua report said. Average profit was down 4.9% to CNY54.65 billion yuan.

None of us are terribly confident about the validity of the numbers, but what matters here is likely to be the trend. Needless to say it would not be at all surprising to see a strong correlation between declining sales and rising debt. This just suggests that as developers have trouble selling projects they have already financed, they need to roll the debt over rather than repay it.

The second interesting piece was from the current issue of the always hard-hitting Caixin:

Angry institutional bond investors holding a Sichuan Province highway construction company's debt are stirring a hornet's nest over a financial practice that's apparently commonly used by local government financing platforms across China. The practice is called internal asset transfer, and investors who purchased bonds backing Sichuan Expressway Construction & Development Corp recently learned the hard way that it can be used by local governments to burn corporate debt holders.

Investors say they were forced to accept higher default risks for their Sichuan Expressway mid-term notes because the transfer involved the construction company's most valuable asset  a stake in the Chengyu toll road between Chengdu and Chongqing worth about 3.85 billion yuan.

I don't want to read too much into this one incident, but of course as the GFC and the European crises remind us (especially some recent moves in Ireland to abrogate the bank subordinated-debt contracts), in overly liquid markets with rapid credit expansion, lenders tend to overlook mechanisms that weaken their ability to protect themselves  generally on the assumption that protection is unnecessary. This issue of internal asset transfers is something about which I have heard a lot over the years, but I always resolve to learn more about it at some later date and so have never dug too deeply into it.

Loan growth

Also in the same edition of Caixing is an article on total banking assets:

As of 2010, the total assets of China's banking industry have grown to 2.39 times the amount of national GDP, breaking records once again at nearly 100 trillion yuan. In comparison, according to OECD data, Japan's banking assets in 2008 stood at US$ 9.81 trillion, 2.27 times the amount of its GDP, which was US$ 4.32 trillion. Germany, another country representative of economies that rely on banks for financing, had 6.6 trillion euros for banking assets and 2.48 trillion euros for GDP in 2008. Its 2008 banking-assets versus GDP ratio was 2.66, almost the same as it had been in previous years.

The surge in China's banking assets, which took off in 2009, was attributed to political directives rather than monetary policies. In 2009, huge amounts of loans were made at the order of government. The central bank did not cut interest rates; in fact, it conducted a net absorption of liquidity from the market through its open market operations. Meanwhile, the market capitalization of domestic stock exchanges more than doubled from a year earlier, an indication of too much capital flowing around.

I guess I don't need to comment much beyond what Caixing says. I have many times argued that historically one of the key indicators that the high-growth investment-driven model has reached its limits as a wealth creator (i.e. is no longer allocating capital efficiently) is when we see an unsustainable increase in debt. Of course whether or not we have reached this point is still much debated, but I would argue that we started to see this at least five years ago. The surge in banking assets doesn't give much comfort.

Finally, for the last thing I want to bring up, my Shenyin Wanguo colleague Chen Long sent me a piece on the recent 2011 First Quarter monetary policy report issued by the PBoC this week.

The 2011Q1 monetary policy report reiterates that controlling inflation remains the PBoC's top priority, and it will continue to raise interest rates and reserve requirements when necessary. It is unusual for the central bank to address its policy targets in such a straightforward fashion, which led to concerns in the market about more tightening measures.

The report also revealed that actual lending rates are much higher than the minimum levels set by the PBoC. The weighted-average lending rate was 6.91% in March (72bps higher than at the end of last year) while the 1-year benchmark lending rate was only raised by 50bps from the end of last year. In March, 56% of new bank loans were lent out at a premium to benchmark rates and only 14% of new loans went lent out at a discount. Last year only 40% of these loans were lent at a premium while nearly 30% were lent at a discount to benchmark interest rates. The major causes of this change are the recent property regulation measures and tighter credit quotas.

An unsustainable rise in debt is, for me, one of the key indicators that the investment-driven model has passed its useful life and is generating negative growth while posting positive growth numbers. This is why I spend so much time trying to understand debt levels and the structure of balance sheets. I plan to discuss this a lot more in my next blog entry.

For the latest investing news, visit Money Game. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

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See Also:
JOSH BROWN: We Are Under Attack By Chinese Reverse Mergers
Longtop Financial: Lessons In The Morphology Of Sin, Loss Of Virginity, And Your 17 Year Old Daughter
Andy Xie: Chinese Real Estate Prices Will Drop By 50% In 3 Years

http://www.businessinsider.com/secret-chinese-methods-hiding-debt-2011-5

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REVEALED: The Secret Business Rationale For The Self-Driving Google Cars (GOOG)

When Google revealed that they had been building and experimenting with self-driving cars, many people including us wondered what could possibly be the business rationale for doing such a thing.

The latest theory is that Google might offer a service to drive people around and use that to collect data. And maybe it'll do that.

But we can now "reveal" the secret business plan behind Google's self-driving cars. We hope you're sitting down, because it's revolutionary: when you make a great product that solves an important problem you will tend to end up with a great business.

Crazy, right.

So maybe Google will do the car-service thing. Maybe it will build a subscription/metered service that's a cross between Uber and ZipCar where you can order a car from your phone and be driven around to wherever you want to be. Maybe it will licence its technology to car makers. Who knows.

But it seems pretty obvious to us that if Google can perfect self-driving car technology that can be a huge business.

People sitting in transit for hours is one of the biggest drags on productivity and therefore the economy, not to mention the environment and well-being. And let's not forget the fact that car accidents, most of which come down to human error, kill lots of people each year.

It seems pretty obvious to us that there's tons and tons of money to be made solving that problem.

The weaker form of the argument against Google's self-driving cars is that Google is a search company and it should focus on its core business.

Corporate finance ideology demands that companies focus on their core competency instead of trying to "diversify" because diversification is up to the shareholders. A company that makes shoes shouldn't also make coffee machines because companies are run for the benefit of shareholders and if shareholders want exposure to the shoe sector and the coffee machine sector they will buy a shoe stock and a coffee machine stock, unless there are "synergies" and "efficiencies" and "economies of scale" in making shoes and coffee machines at the same time. And that's all fine in theory (even though nobody believes it in practice, which is a topic for another day).

But the flip side of that is that if shareholders don't want Google to diversify into self-driving cars they can just sell the stock or fire the CEO, and that doesn't seem to be happening. (That's complicated by the fact that the CEO is also a huge shareholder but presumably the non-robots who bought the stock knew that going in.)

At the end of the day, management's duty to shareholders is to increase the net present value of future cashflows.

Can self-driving cars accomplish that? You bet they can.

One way of looking at Google is that it's a search company. Another way of looking at Google--and we're speculating, but we think that's the way Google CEO Larry Page looks at it--is that it's a company whose core competency is hiring the world's most talented engineers, getting them to figure out ambitious solutions to big problems, and then figuring out a way to make money from that. That's pretty much how it was envisioned in 1998, and we'd say it's served them pretty well so far.

Don't like it? Don't buy the stock.

Don't Miss: Google's 10 Weirdest Investments

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See Also:
REPORT: Google Was Warned About Illegal Drug Ads In 2003
Groupon Is On Its Way To Becoming The Next Big Mobile Ad Network
Microsoft Is Moving Too Slowly On Social Features For Office, So Jive Is Filling The Gaps

http://www.businessinsider.com/google-cars-2011-5

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Startup Brings Group Buying to Digital Games, Books & Services

The Spark of Genius Series highlights a unique feature of startups and is made possible by Microsoft BizSpark. If you would like to have your startup considered for inclusion, please see the details here.

Name: Stampede.it

Quick Pitch: Stampede.it runs group deals for digital goods.

Genius Idea: Targeting businesses with low marginal costs.
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The amount of money consumers spend on products that only exist in a digital sense is increasing the number of ebooks sold on Amazon recently surpassed the number of physical books, and some estimates predict that branded virtual goods alone will reach an annual revenue of $318 million by 2015.

Mainstream sites like Groupon have not excluded such products from their offerings. But since just about every niche product category has sprouted its own group buying site, it seems fitting that digital apps, games, services and content get a site of their own.

Stampede.it is the first digital-products-focused group buying site we've noticed step up to the plate. The site, which launches today, plans to offer one deal every 2-3 days using what it calls a tipping point system. The first deal $20 of credit for a casual game tournament site called SkillAddiction.com costs $15 if at least 15 people buy the deal, $10 if at least 50 buy it and $10 if at least 100 people buy it.

These tipping points incentivize consumers to share and promote the deals they buy. Similar mechanisms have worked well for Livingsocial, which gives users a free deal if three of their friends buy a deal, and Groupon, which gives users $10 in credit for referring a new user.

Digital products are a good target for group buying because they typically have low marginal costs. "The company spends the same amount whether one person or 1,000 people download the game," explains CEO Justin Groden.

Not so with a business like a restaurant, which has to buy supplies for 100 discounted meals if it sells 100 deals for them. In this way, a group deal might be less risky for a company that produces a digital product. These companies, however, won't be jumping to offer deals until Stampede.it proves it can provide interested customers.

Groden mentioned features ranging from badges to referral rewards that might help grow a user base, but at day one of operation, it's too soon whether to tell if the process of acquiring users will be the hurdle that crashes or lifts the startup.

Image courtesy of iStockphoto, mattjeacock
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Series Supported by Microsoft BizSpark
---------------

The Spark of Genius Series highlights a unique feature of startups and is made possible by Microsoft BizSpark, a startup program that gives you three-year access to the latest Microsoft development tools, as well as connecting you to a nationwide network of investors and incubators. There are no upfront costs, so if your business is privately owned, less than three years old, and generates less than U.S.$1 million in annual revenue, you can sign up today.

More About: group buying, groupon, living social, virtual goods

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Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Big Microsoft Investor David Einhorn Says Ballmer Must Go (MSFT)

Hedge fund manager David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital believes Microsoft is a strong buy -- but he thinks the board should fire Steve Ballmer.

Speaking at the Ira Sohn Conference this afternoon, Einhorn criticized Ballmer's "Charlie Brown" style of management and said "His continued presence is the biggest overhang on Microsoft stock."

Other comments: Ballmer is stuck in the past, and at best a caretaker, and he is responsible for Microsoft wasting billions in R&D money.

Despite Ballmer's presence, he thinks Microsoft is a good bargain right now, as the company has been "much stronger" than the average company in the S&P 500, but hasn't gotten credit for some of its achievements.

At the end of the first quarter, Greenlight held more than 9 million shares of Microsoft worth nearly $230 million, making it the fund's 8th largest holding, according to Wall Street Cheat Sheet.

Einhorn gained fame at the 2008 Sohn event by describing how he was shorting the housing market and slamming Lehman Brothers -- several months before the housing market drove Lehman out of business.

Einhorn's remarks were tweeted by BI's Katya Wachtel, among many others, and reported by the Wall Street Journal previously.

For the latest tech news, visit SAI: Silicon Alley Insider. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

Join the conversation about this story

See Also:
Ballmer: It's Called Windows 8 And It's Coming In 2012*
Microsoft Opens Windows Phone To Much Better Apps
Microsoft's Real Windows Phone 7 Problem: Nobody Cares

http://www.businessinsider.com/big-microsoft-investor-david-einhorn-says-ballmer-must-go-2011-5

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DTP Tools unveils Active Tables for Adobe InDesign

DTP Tools, which makes plug-ins for Adobe InDesign and Quark Xpress, has announced Active Tables for InDesign, a powerful in-app spreadsheet editor. The plug-in allows users to create formulas and edit cells, rows and columns of imported spreadsheet data extensively without having to re-open any spreadsheet program to edit the source. The add-on enables clients to create accurate price quotes, automate invoice creation, localize marketing materials, incorporate time-limited discounts, create price lists or localize sales tax calculations.The Active Tables plug-in can use formulas that handle text and conditions, for example adjusting the tax amount on an invoice automatically based on the customer's location. By using formulas instead of "final" numbers in a document, changes are automatically updated the moment the source data is changed, avoiding errors. The software can convert text to formulas, create reports listing the formulas in a document, create formulas in any text flow or table cell, and define formula appearance in Paragraph Styles.

<br/>

<br/>The program can also format results as text, numbers, currency, percentages, or any user-defined format; sort table rows and columns by multiple criteria; show grid coordinates for tables and list tables in a document; give users the ability to update formulas "live" or freeze them in one state and more. The plug-in includes 35 common spreadsheet functions, and can add missing functions upon request.

<br/>

<br/>Active Tables for Adobe Indesign costs $79 per license, and is available for Mac and Windows (works with InDesign CS3 and higher). A 14-day trial version is available.

http://www.macnn.com/articles/11/05/25/brings.spreadsheet.editing.to.desktop.publishing/

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Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Karizma Lets You Video Chat With People Around You, Whether You Know Them Or Not

Like a combination Tango, Skype and Facebook and Chatroulette (or a Chatroulette for Facetime), Karizma is a location based video chat messenger that banks on the theory that people want to video chat with people who are geographically close to them. Karizma allows you to call people who are in your proximity, not just your current contacts.

Users can turn on Karizma and get connected to other Karizma users who are in their near vicinity based on age, friends in common, language and interests, whether they are on a 3G or Wifi Network.

Another possible use case for Karizma is being able to call a store or a local business you're passing by or curious about and inquire as to whether or not they are busy or there are reservations available. Imagine what this will do for the glutted SF brunch rush.

Founded by the Russian-born Egor Lavrov, Karizma plans on monetizing by subscription, offering unlimited calls to users nearby as well as iAd and AdMob for the freemium model. As for the privacy concerns here, that's a whole nother can of worms.

Q&A

Generally ambivalent reaction from the judges, primarily based on the chicken and the egg problem.

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Monday, May 23, 2011

Square’s Disruptive New iPad Payments Service Will Replace Cash Registers

Mobile payments startup Square is announcing big numbers today—500,000 Square card readers shipped, 1 million Square transactions in May, and the startup is now processing $3 million in mobile payments per day. Clearly the company is on a roll in terms of traction and usage. And CEO Jack Dorsey is also revealing the next generation of Square. And Square is about to get a whole lot more disruptive.

Today, Dorsey is revealing Square Register, a high-powered point of sale replacement for cash registers and point of sale terminals. And the company is taking it one step further for consumers by launching the Square Card Case, a way for purchasers to access a local merchants' goods, prices, location, loyalty card and more.

For background, Square offers an iPhone, Android and iPad app which allows merchants to process and manage credit card transactions with a handy little credit card swiping device that plugs into the headset/microphone jack. The device and service is the brainchild of Twitter co-founder and recently appointed product lead Jack Dorsey and Jim McKelvey. And Square recently raised $27.5 million in new funding, and announced a strategic investment from credit card company Visa. In Q1, Square did $66 million in payment volume (the company expected $40 million) and is now in track to process $1 billion in payment volume within a year.

Square Register For The iPad

Square's COO Keith Rabois tells us that as the startup has created a payments product for small businesses, they've learned that many businesses have more needs than simply having a credit card processor. One of these needs is being able to not only accept cards, but also communicate with customers more efficiently. So today, Square is launching this brand new version of its iPad app, Square Register.

Rabois says the iPad app makes these expensive and cumbersome terminals obsolete for merchants. Not only is the reader and app free (and beautifully designed), but the register is designed to help create and maintain meaningful relationships with customers. Historically, Square's readers always stored every purchaser's receipt for merchants and allowed merchant's to send a copy of the receipt to the purchaser via SMS and email. It was fairly simple.

Now, with the upgrade, merchants can send customers a link to download an app on their mobile phone called a Square Card Case. And this gives merchants a whole new level of engagement with their customers. And data is another big component of Square's announcement—Dorsey says merchants will have Google Analytics style data that merchants can access, such as how many muffins were sold, and to which types of customers, and more.

The Square Card Case For Consumers

As you can see from the image, the Card Case looks like a wallet-like case you would store your loyalty cards or credit cards in. Here's how it works: when you go to a merchant who is a participating Square users, the merchant will send you a link to download the app on your mobile phone. It's important to note that the app is not available in the App Store publicly, and at launch will only support iPhones; Android support will be rolled out soon.

Once you've downloaded your mobile Card Case, you can fill your case with cards' of all the merchants you visit and buy from who accept Square. When you click on an individual merchant's card, you'll be able to see a map of where the merchant is located, contact information, your own order and purchase history, and receipts with the merchant and a daily live menu of items or services from the merchant. You'll also be able to see what other customers are buying at the store, and merchants can serve customized offers to specific customers based on their purchase history.

So here's where things get interesting. In a merchant's card within the case, you can press a "use tab" button which allows the frequent customer to essentially put a purchase on their virtual tab with Square at the merchant. So once you press that button within two blocks of the merchant, you'll be able to tell the cashier your name and your card will be charged on the merchant's backend Square register. Because you are a repeat customer, Square already has your payment information. The purchaser will then receive a push notification when the merchant processes the payment.

Another feature of the newly designed Square is the ability for the payments company to show other merchants nearby who also accept Square payments. As Rabois puts it, "it's like a curated app store for local businesses."

At launch, Square's new register and digital wallet service is being used by 50 merchants across the U.S., in San Francisco, Washington D.C., St. Louis, LA, and New York. In fact, there are merchants in the hall at TechCrunch Disrupt here in New York who will be showing attendees how to use the new version of the service. We're told that the service will the "thoughtfully" rolled out to merchants in the coming weeks. Participating merchants range from coffee shops to bakeries to flower shops to restaurants to salons.

Square believes that this next generation of the service will become the default way to run a business and a payments platform. Not only does Square give you analytics and insight into how well your business is doing, but it allows local businesses to connect to customers in a way they couldn't with traditional point of sale systems and cash registers.

In terms of financial terms, nothing has changed. Square will continue to charge the 2.75 percent per transaction fee (the startup dropped the $0.15 per transaction charge for businesses a few months ago). And interestingly, Square chose to refurbish its iPad app into the suped-up register, keeping its Android and iPhone apps as simple payment processors. Rabois tells us this decision was made after seeing the iPad's succes as a device in retail environments.

In the end, their strategy is based around how they take friction away from payments for local businesses, Rabois tells me. There's no doubt that this new version of the service will be able to connect local merchants to customers in a way that no payments processer has been able to thus far. We know PayPal is trying to get into local, but Square just beat the payments giant to it with this offering. Not only does it offer personalization for each customer, but Square is now tapping into location, and there is still much more to come, Rabois notes.

One piece of advice to PayPal, Visa, or any other payments giant who wants to be a part of the future of payments: buy Square. Like yesterday.

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